The Art of Complex Problem Solving

Life is full of all sorts of problems, but it just so happens that the problems worth solving happen to be complex as opposed to simple.

<For fun I'm going to start recommending music to listen to while reading my posts. If you wanna play along with my idea, listen to 'One Direction - What Makes You Beautiful' by the PianoGuys.>

Recently while stumbling about on Stumbleupon.com, I cam across this fantastic diagram:
http://www.idiagram.com/CP/cpprocess.html

 

http://www.idiagram.com/CP/cpprocess.html

I encourage everyone to follow the link under the picture because the diagram is interactive!!! Scroll your mouse all over the place and read all the cool stuff about complex problem solving, you will be glad you did!

Anyway, people usually have a hard time tackling complex problems because, well, they are complex. According to Ideagram.com, complex problems are 'the emergent result of many intertwined factors,' and lists the following characteristics: 'Difficult, Uncertain, Contentious, Interactive, New.' Here are a few examples of what I consider to be complex and simple problems:

Examples of Complex and Simple Problems

(Click image to enlarge)

Figuring out whether or not God exists, the main purpose of my life and of this blog, is one of the most complex problems ever to have arisen. It involves history: ancient documents, ancient cultures, learning and analyzing dead languages, and determining what should be considered reliable, physics: cosmology, M-theory (string theory), relativity, astronomy, inflation theory, and quantum mechanics, biology: the origin of life, genetics, cell biology, and evolution, philosophy: logic, metaphysics (sorta its own category, but whatever), the cosmological argument, the teleological argument, the ontological argument, theology: understanding from every religion available. Obviously this is a generalized list and much more could be added.

The plot thickens when you have to mix and match subjects. For example, try applying philosophical arguments to history, or work out the relationship between the theology of each religion and the natural world. Each of these subjects speaks into and informs the others- biology into philosophy, history into theology, physics into biology. Only when all of these issues can be integrated into a singe, beautiful argument based off of evidence from every area can a truly powerful answer be given to the question 'does God exist?'

This intense amount of complexity involved in determining whether or not God exists is the primary reason why most don't search for truth. Also, the increased specialization in every field makes it ever more difficult to be an expert on every necessary subject. My solution to this problem is simply to not sleep.

Solving a complex problem takes time, energy, resources, buddies, and huge amounts of motivation (to overcome that pesky laziness all of us possess).

What is easier? Take something on faith or actually figuring it out? Taking it on faith. Which of the two gives you an actual answer? Faith can never do that. Those of us who figure it out are the only ones who get to know.

Abortion- a biologist's perspective

This morning I woke up and realized that there was a highly controversial, polarizing, and emotionally-charged issue that I had failed to say anything about. Baffled at how I ever could have let this issue slip through my fingers for so long, I subjected myself to a cold shower, many push ups, and forced myself to eat nothing but asparagus for breakfast (oh wait, I like asparagus).

Alright, enough humor to try to put you at ease. I actually think this is a very serious issue and one that more people should talk about! Because this is such a charged topic, I certainly can understand why most try to avoid the topic all together.

Let's try to have a level-headed, non-emotional, respectful conversation about this! Hear me out, and I promise to hear you out. Also, while describing biological concepts I will throw in some star wars jokes to help readers learn about science stuff (this will prevent some readers from being bored). When talking specifically about abortion, I will avoid humor because it is a very serious issue. I want to be sensitive in case anyone has been harmed in the past with anything relating to this topic. So, I will divide this post into two sections, as clearly defined by my gigantic labels.
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A Biologist's Perspective on Abortion
First of all, I think everyone can agree that murder is wrong. Please note I'm not saying that abortion is or isn't murder right now. All I'm saying is that murder is wrong. If you disagree on that one, we need to have a different conversation!

Now then, how does murder happen? When one human (or group of humans) kills another human (or group of humans).

When it comes to abortion, I think the question of paramount importance is this: 'is an unborn baby a human?' A few other appropriate questions could be 'at what point after conception is a baby human?' 'is a baby only alive once it is born?' and 'is a human actually present at conception?'


BIOLOGY SECTION
It is with reference to these questions that as a senior biology major (who never got less than an 'A' on any test given by Dr. Dini [if you go to Tech, you probably know what that means]), that I feel that I can speak authoritatively. After all, biology is defined as 'the study of life.' What is that I hear some of the feminists in the crowd saying? 'Josh!!! You are a GUY- you can't talk about abortion!' Well... I certainly am not a female, and I have what it takes to prove it. However, I am a biologist working for Texas Tech on a shark research team and a member of Howard Hughes Medical Institute. I think I can talk about what is and isn't human (in terms of biology)!

And now to answer the questions above. Let's start out with 'Is a human present at conception?'

Before I answer, let me give you a little biology background in genetics: All living organisms have these crazy things called genomes. Genomes contain all of the DNA present within an organism. DNA is genetic material that contains all the information necessary for the structure and function of an organism.

Let me share an interesting little example for you. If you have a bacteria of species X, you take its genome out, and add in the genome from bacterial species Y, bacteria X will turn into bacteria Y. That's right- species X will transform into species Y. If you don't believe me, ask Craig Venter: http://www.ted.com/talks/craig_venter_unveils_synthetic_life.html

This means that the identity of an organism is defined by the DNA that is present in its genome! You are a human because you have a human genome. I also am a human because I have a human genome. Winnie-the-Poo is a bear because he has a bear genome (Grizzly?). Free Willy is a killer whale because he has a killer whale genome. Babe, Lassie, and Flipper are all... I digress.

There is one more bit if biology we need to know before we can answer the question of 'is a human present at conception.' You might want to get any children out of the room now, because we're gonna talk about sex!

Now then, sperm and eggs. What are they? How do they function? Well, humans are what is known as diploid organisms. This means that our cells have two sets of chromosomes (chromosomes contain all of your DNA) - one from our mom and one from our dad. This would be in opposition to haploid organisms, which only have one set of chromosomes. (and you thought our discussion about sex was gonna be a lot more interesting, didn't you)

When people have sex, sperm go on an adventure to find an egg (kinda like Easter). The sperm from the dad have one set of chromosomes, and the egg in the mom has one set of chromosomes. When a sperm and an egg unite, the resulting cell is diploid. Watch this: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zGwDwx10wB4. Now insert 'sperm' for 'friends' and 'human genome' for 'deflector shield.' The result of the 'friends' arriving is a 'deflector shield' that has two sets of chromosomes. This means that conception results in (to use the words of the Emperor) 'a fully armed and operational' human genome. Go to (0:50 of http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=T0R_wy2p9yU). Sex, Star Wars, Human Genome. Now we all understand!


Before the sperm and eggs unite, they have genomes that are identical to that of the parents. After the sperm and eggs unite, a new, unique, and most importantly -human- genome is present.
END BIOLOGY SECTION 

Now we are getting back to the serious portion of this post.

What I'm about to say has nothing to do with religion, political affiliation, race, gender, etc: I'm just gonna hit you with some good old fashioned science. Based off of biology, a human IS present at conception. If an abortion takes place at any point following conception, it is ending a human life. Ending a human life is wrong. Ending a human life is murder.
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My condolences to any who have been harmed by this topic. I hope I have not added to that in any way. However, the fact that abortion results in the termination of a human life is inescapable. In the case of pregnancy/birth causing the mother to die, we are dealing with two human lives. We could talk about that issue for a lot longer, so it deserves its own post. Rape does not make ending a human life right. Mental retardation does not make ending a human life right. The potential for a less-than-happy life does not make ending a human life right.

One more time- you probably started out with the wrong worldview

I feel that this is a very important point that absolutely must be understood. While I have included this line of thinking in my last 3 posts now, I also included a lot of other thoughts which could have diluted this one essential issue. I want to do a single post just on this, because it is very important.

I will first make my statement, and then provide you with a few links to blog posts containing my reasoning to support it. Please consider the following with an open mind, and if you think I'm wrong please check out my other posts before responding or deciding not to listen to me! If after reading my other posts supporting this you still think I'm wrong, please let me know why! If you are right and I am wrong I would love to change what I think. Without further ado, think about this:

Everyone probably starts out in the wrong world view.

I feel that the general assumption most people make is that they started out in the right world view, and need to be presented with earth-shattering evidence to be persuaded otherwise. But there is no reason to assume that you started out in the right worldview, simply based on the fact that you started out in it. Instead of assuming that you are right to start out with, it makes much more sense to assume that you started out wrong.

Forgive me for not getting to the reasoning backing this up just yet, but since most of my readers are Christians (and obviously I could make this statement with any worldview), let me say it this way: If no evidence has been examined, and due to the large number of belief systems that are not Christianity, the odds are that Christianity is false. Having a high index of suspicion that Christianity is not true should be your starting point.

I will provide one thought here as support, and leave the rest up to my other posts. If you are having trouble swallowing what I said about Christianity probably being false to start with (which may indicate that you are a Christian), then consider this. Would you prefer that a Muslim starts out assuming that they are right? I think that in most cases this initial assumption  leads to a lifetime of unjustified belief in something that is not true (and I'm talking about every belief system here- not just Islam and Christianity).


How does one start to raise their index of suspicion that one belief system is more valid than the others? By examining evidence for and against every world view.

Here are the posts with material supporting this statement:

• http://honestsearchfortruth.blogspot.com/2012/07/what-are-odds-your-denomination-has.html
• http://honestsearchfortruth.blogspot.com/2012/07/what-are-odds-that-you-were-born-into.html
• http://honestsearchfortruth.blogspot.com/2012/07/you-probably-started-out-believing.html

Thank you very much for reading  and for having an open mind!

-Josh

You probably started out believing the wrong thing

If you were born into a specific religion, and then went out in search of evidence specifically for what you currently believe, you probably found some legit-sounding arguments for you already established belief system.

Because everyone is at least a little curious about the validity of what they believe at one time or another, this is a very normal thing to do. Unfortunately it is also uncomfortable, consuming time, energy, and thinking power, so most will have a few conversations with a religious leader or maybe read a book or two on the subject. Then, after this brief sidetrack of questioning, it is common to accept the few legit-seeming answers you got and then move on with life assuming your religion is true.

There is a problem with this- if you only look at evidence for what you currently believe, you will probably be lulled into a false sense of belief. Almost any religion can be convincing after such a surface level inquiry has taken place.

In addition, based on my last post, http://honestsearchfortruth.blogspot.com/2012/07/what-are-odds-that-you-were-born-into.html, you probably started out in the wrong place anyway. The situation would be analogous to putting a band-aid over a wound from a battle axe and calling it good.

What to do then? At least get multiple points of view! Don't just read books and talk to leaders from your current belief system. Also read books and talk to people who have the opposite point of view. Learn about other religions from members of those religions (not your current leader!). If you ask you current leader whether or not there is legit evidence for other beliefs, and he/she says 'no', well what answer were you expecting? Obviously he/she will tell you that the belief system he/she is a leader of is legit and that others are not.

So, it is way better to learn about other religions from the members of those religions.

As with the last few posts, my overall goal has been to persuade people of the following things:

1. There is only one truth
2. All but one belief system is false
3. Because there are many belief systems, if you pick one at random you will probably start out in the wrong
4. Being born into a religion, reading 1 or 2 books in favor of what you already believe, and never getting evidence from the opposite side of the argument is no better than just picking a belief system at random
5. Finding truth is essential to obtaining maximal happiness
6. You find truth by going on an honest search

 Thanks for reading! Please leave comments!

The odds of being born into the right religion

In my last post, I talked about the unlikelihood of any one denomination having all the right answers (http://honestsearchfortruth.blogspot.com/2012/07/what-are-odds-your-denomination-has.html): Now it's time to take this line of thinking further and consider the unlikelihood of being born into the correct religion.

Let's say there are 49 religions and atheism (not religion), for a total of 50 worldviews. Let's also say that only 1 of these worldviews is correct. For example, Christianity, Islam, and atheism cannot all be true- God cannot be YHWH, Allah, and non-existent all at the same time. There is only one truth.

As is most often the case, people are brought up in a certain religion and then believe that same thing for the rest of their lives. Then they teach their children to believe the same thing, and the cycle continues.

If these people never honestly consider the evidence for and against each worldview, and opt for chillin with what they grew up with, what are the odds that they were born into the truth?

Well, 1/50. By simply choosing to believe what you grew up with, you have a 1 in 50 chance of believing in the worldview that accurately describes the world.

This means that if you have done no searching or weighing of evidence, your current worldview is almost definitely wrong. Not maybe wrong, not probably wrong, almost definitely wrong.

In reality there are many more than just 50 worldviews. Surely there must be a better way to find truth than hoping you got it at birth! There is- methodically examine the evidence for every worldview possible! (side note- I realize that in some cases it may be impossible to examine all the evidence. For example, extinct worldviews that we have no access to are impossible to research. Soon I will write a post about why it is better to examine as much evidence as possible as opposed to throwing our arms up in the air and taking our chances)

Based off of my experience, it is pretty easy to rule out a large number of worldviews in a short period of time. If you knock out half of them, you have doubled your odds. If you knock out all but two, you have a fifty-fifty shot at picking the correct worldview. If you can show all but one of them are false, then your best shot would be the one you haven't ruled out yet. Obviously you would want some positive evidence to go along with that ruling too. In addition, your conclusion is only as good as your evidence and reasoning.

This is way better than sticking with your 1/50 shot (or 1/100, or 1/1000, whatever the number of worldviews actually is).

I find it strange that most people don't think about religion this way. I suppose kids are programmed to trust their parents- which makes sense. If they didn't they would almost certainly die. Children grow up believing what their parents teach them about religion and assuming that the evidence for it is legit. Or they simply don't care about evidence and roll with what is socially acceptable. Either way, their odds of actually getting it right are very small!

It may be helpful to think about people who have different worldviews than you do for a moment. Let's say you are a devout Christian (if you consider yourself to be Christian, but think that many worldviews are true, this doesn't apply to you, and we should have a different conversation!). What do you think about the Islamic people? What about the Jews? Or perhaps the Wicca?

You probably think that they have it wrong. You also probably know next to nothing about Hare-Krishna, Falun-Gong, Taoism, Zoroastrianism, or Hinduism, but you probably have this feeling that they are wrong too. Too bad that they weren't blessed with such a religiously correct upbringing!

Now lets pretend that you are Islamic. When you think about all those poor Atheists, Confucionists, Shintos, African Spiritualists, Mormons, and Christians, you probably think that all of them are wrong and that you are right.

This utterly unjustified assumption made by many people gives them a sense of comfort in what they believe, while masking the truth that they have a mere 1/50 chance of being right.

So once again, it is a good idea to increase your odds somehow.  Why? Well I'm gonna do a blog post about why here in the next day or two, so come back and read if you would like to hear what I think. =D The blog post will be titled "If you want to be happy, you need to figure out the rules."


Thanks for reading!

-Josh

What are the odds that your denomination has everything right?

If you don't think your denomination has everything right, then save yourself some time and go read this instead: http://honestsearchfortruth.blogspot.com/2012/07/what-are-odds-that-you-were-born-into.html

If you do think your denomination has everything (or almost everything) right, or if you just like reading fun blog posts, the next time you get into a deep conversation with someone it may be useful to keep the following post in mind. I say this because I used to have the firm conviction that I was right about everything, which made me only think about how I was going to respond while people tried to share things with me.

Anyway, let's pretend that there are a mere 100 issues that a denomination within Christianity can have an opinion about. Let's also assume that all of these issues pertain to doctrines that are clearly expressed in the Bible (not issues where the Bible leaves a large amount of room for interpretation). These issues could include whether or not the physical act of baptism is necessary for salvation, whether or not infant baptism is a good idea, whether or not spiritual gifts such as speaking in tongues happens today, whether or not healings and miracles still happen, whether or not gay/lesbian people should be allowed to be priests/pastors, whether or not women should be allowed to participate in preaching or be elders, the way church government should be structured, the role of the church in politics, church discipline, what happens to people who never get a chance to accept the gospel, whether or not the English version of the Bible is perfect, whether or not the original Bible was perfect, whether or not it is ok to use birth control, you get the idea. If you feel the urge to tell me that the Bible leaves a large amount of room for interpretation on any of the issues I mentioned, that is fine! In that case, please treat the 'definitive answer' expressed by the Bible to be 'there is room for interpretation on this.'

Obviously there are way more than 100 issues that denominations can have an opinion about, but for now lets say that there are only 100. Also, for the sake of discussion, let's pretend that most people adhere to the teachings of the denomination that they are brought up in. Once again, many Christians change churches, denominations, or even revolutionize their worldviews, but let's just talk about the people who stick with what they grew up with and believe it with conviction for now!

Also, in reality, each individual church will probably have unique specifics that will vary within denominations, but lets also pretend that every church within each denomination believes the same thing.

Having interviewed Christians from many denominations (Baptist, Reformed, Lutheran, Evangelical, Bible-church, Quaker, Catholic, Eastern Orthodox, Seventh-day Adventist, Pentecostal, Anglican, United, Presbyterian, Charismatic, Born-Again, Independent, and Non-denominational) to learn what they believe, I noticed only two things that almost all of them had in common: They thought they were right about everything, and they had faith that God 'just happened' to place them in the denomination that had everything right.

The interesting thing about this is that the reason that we even have denominations- as opposed to everyone just being 'Christians'- is that all of these groups have differences of opinion on at least one issue. This means that it is impossible for all of them to be right. There is a chance that one of the denominations could have everything right, but it is impossible for them to all have it right. I would also contend that in reality, every denomination is wrong about something.

Now then, lets say you are one of the people who grew up being a part of a single denomination, and lets also say that you believe that the teachings of your denomination correct on every issue.

Have you considered how unbearably unlikely this is?

If you were going to respond that you have faith that God placed you in the specific denomination that just happened to get everything right, know that you are in good company! Pretty much every denomination believes this. Maybe you got lucky (or 'ordained' if you would prefer that terminology) and just happened to be placed in the right denomination. I don't think this is a good assumption to make because there are tons of denominations. If there were only 200 denominations (and there are many more than that), you would have a 1/200 chance.

'So what?' you say- Keep in mind that I'm not arguing that it is necessarily a bad thing for people to have differences of opinion. Assuming you are one of the people I am talking about, all I'm trying to drive home with this post is that  you- yes you- are probably wrong about something, and your- yes your- denomination probably believes something contradictory to what the Bible teaches.

Because of this, I would encourage everyone to take a hard look at what they believe to figure out if they what they believe is accurate. Don't just take your pastor's word on it! Look for answers for yourself. Learn to think!

I acknowledge that this applies to me as well! For a full list of issues that I have been wrong on so far (and there are probably more that I haven't identified), see: http://honestsearchfortruth.blogspot.com/2011/12/my-mistakes-so-far-and-issues-i-have.html

If you start to do this, you will probably find out that you will always be wrong about something. I think it is fun and important to keep searching so that you can get as close to the truth as possible.

Conclusion: the odds that you are right on every issue is approaching zero. You can increase the percentage of issues you are right on by honestly searching for truth. In my eyes, there is nothing more important than embarking on this quest.

In the next post, we'll have this same discussion about worldviews in general (what are the odds that the religion you grew up with is correct?), as opposed to the differences within a single religion.